TOWER GROVE — Back during those 100-win salad days of 2004 and 2005, the St. Louis Cardinals’ tremendous success at the major-league level was a facade for what anyone with an eye on the minors knew, and knew well: It all could be fleeting.

A sobering reminder of the situation they put themselves in came the winter after the Cardinals juggernaut run to the National League pennant and World Series in 2004. Baseball America, viewed by many as the standard in the industry for prospect evaluations, ranked the Cardinals’ minor-league system 30th out of 30 teams in its 2005 Prospect Handbook. First in the NL, dead last in the BA.

The Cardinals vowed to change things with the 2005 draft.

By Baseball America’s measure they have.

For the first time since the trade publication began publishing the yearly Prospect Handbook in 2001, the Cardinals’ minor-league system will rank in the top 10, according to the Handbook’s editor Jim Callis. Callis sent me an email recently confirming the Cardinals’ collection of prospect talent will rank No. 8 when the book is released in January.

OF Colby Rasmus makes his third — and likely final — appearance as the St. Louis Cardinals' No. 1 prospect, per BA.

“It’s always fun to do the organization rankings because outside of the very best and very worst systems, I don’t know exactly how they’re going to stack up until I start lining them up against each other,” Callis wrote in an email. “The Cardinals were one of the surprises for me. I’ve always liked Colby Rasmus and Brett Wallace, but their depth really snuck up on me. When guys like flamethrowing Adam Reifer and Jaime Garcia — though Garcia is hurt — don’t make our Top 10 list, that’s saying something.”

The top-10 ranking represents a turnaround for the club annually ranked in the lower third by BA. When the Cardinals ranked 30th overall in 2005, it was the second time in four years that they were considered 30th and the fifth time in six years that they ranked 27th or lower. In 2008’s Handbook, the Cardinals reached the top half, at 13th, for the first time.

For the last three years, Rasmus has been hoisting the Cardinals up in the rankings with the gravitational pull of his place in the top 10 of all prospects and his performance for Team USA and in the Texas League. The fact he has company — in Wallace, in Daryl Jones, in Chris Perez — has boosted the Cardinals from 30 in 2005 (the year Rasmus was drafted) to 8th this coming season (the year Rasmus makes his big-league debut).

For the sake of nostalgia (and context), a detailed tour of where the Cardinals system has been according to Baseball America and how it arrived in the top 10:

2000 … No. 27 — top prospect: LHP Rick Ankiel; notable: No. 3 Adam Kennedy, No. 6 Jack Wilson, No. 8 Luther Hackman.
2001 … No. 23 — top prospect: LHP Bud Smith; notable: No. 2 Albert Pujols, No. 8 Gene Stechschulte, No. 10 Josh Pearce.
2002 … No. 30 — top prospect: RHP Jimmy Journell; notable: No. 4 Justin Pope, No. 5 Yadier Molina, No. 10 Chad Hutchinson, No. 12 Chance Caple.
2003 … No. 28 — top prospect: RHP Dan Haren; notable: No. 2 Journell, No. 6 Shaun Boyd, No. 9 Tyler Johnson, No. 10 Molina.
2004 … No. 28 — top prospect: RHP Blake Hawksworth; notable: No. 2 Adam Wainwright, No. 4 Molina, No. 5 Journell, No. 18 Brendan Ryan.
2005 … No. 30 — top prospect: RHP Anthony Reyes; notable: No. 6 Brad Thompson, No. 8 Chris Duncan, No. 20 Skip Schumaker, No. 29 Journell.
2006 … No. 21 — top prospect: Reyes; notable: No. 2 Rasmus, No. 5 Mark McCormick, No. 6 Wainwright, No. 15 Duncan, No. 20 Rick Ankiel (the outfielder).
2007 … No. 23 — top prospect: Rasmus; notable: No. 3 Chris Perez, No. 6 Bryan Anderson; No. 11 Mitchell Boggs, No. 19 Johnson, No. 29 Schumaker.
2008 … No. 13 — top prospect: Rasmus; notable: No. 2 Perez, No. 3 Anderson, No. 9 Boggs, No. 12 Jess Todd, No. 13 Joe Mather, No. 19 Kyle McClellan, No. 24 Jason Motte.
2009 … No. 8 — top prospect: Rasmus. notable: check back in January when — full disclosure — the top 10 I authored for BA is published.

The improvement within the Cardinals’ system can be illustrated by the rankings adventure of one prospect: Hawksworth. The righthander was signed as a draft-and-follow in 2002 and given a bonus of about $1.5 million. He sported one of the best changeups in the organization from the moment he joined the organization and was seen as not only a high-ceiling pitcher but also one who could move quickly. That was reflected in his debut ranking: No. 5 in the 2003 Handbook. In 2004, he was considered the top prospect in the system. Then injuries and the development of the organization led to Hawksworth’s rise and fall in the rankings: No. 3 in 2005; No. 25 in 2006 (injuries); No. 4 in 2007 and No. 20 in 2008.

Hawksworth is not ranked in the 2009 Handbook, bumped from the Top 30 as much by the infusion of new prospects — international and through the draft — as much as his performance. (And there hasn’t been much mention of him in the Bird Land Community Top 30 that readers are currently putting together.)

“My take on it is that the Cardinals have made a spectacular climb from near or at the bottom of BA’s list just a few years ago to a Top 10 ranking,” wrote Kary Booher in an email to me today. Booher was the beat writer for the Cardinals’ Double-A team in Springfield, Mo., before getting the overdue call-up to the majors and a staff writer position at Baseball America. He arrived in Springfield at Year One of the Cardinals’ rebuilding. “When I covered Double-A Springfield beginning in 2005 and would take the farm system’s temperature in print, I would make clear that the Cardinals had fallen because of a combination of trades to help the big-league team, poor drafts and downright bad luck. …

“It looks like they’ve hit on some nice draft picks since (Bill DeWitt Jr.) handed the scouting department to (Jeff Luhnow). Scouts love Rasmus … and shrewd draft-day moves such as plucking (Clayton Mortensen) in the sandwich round and Jess Todd in the second round in the same draft are bolstering the system. The most fascinating wild card in all of it is Daryl Jones. … What was looking like a terrible gamble could flip and demonstrate the scouting department’s willingness these days to take educated chances rather than hopeful attempts (i.e. most of the 2004 draft class).”

Ah, that 2004 draft class. No need to rehash that here. Save to use it as a cheap transition.

The Cardinals' No. 5 prospect of 2002, C Yadier Molina, congratulates the organization's No. 5 prospect of 2008, LHP Jaime Garcia. From a game in 2008.

The Cardinals are still recovering from the Lost Draft of ‘04. There are critics of the Cardinals’ system — too many of the same type of players; not nearly enough raw athletes; etc. — and there are critics of the system rankings. While his role in improving the farm system has been papered over in recent years for farm director Bruce Manno was always irked by Baseball America’s ranking of the system. Manno, who still has some fingerprints on this No. 8 ranking (see: Jason Motte, for example), argued that a system should be judged by how many big leaguers it produces, not just how many “prospects” it has or how much “potential” pundits guess it has.

There is something to Manno’s argument. Consider the years before that 30th-ranking in 2005, and how many big leaguers (and only a few for that one-sip, two-sip cup of coffee) came from the Cardinals’ Top 10:

2000: 4 of the top 10, including Ankiel (the pitcher), Kennedy, Wilson.
2001: 3 of the top 10, including some guy named Pujols. Nuff said.
2002: 5 of the top 10, including Molina, Haren and Duncan.
2003: 5 of the top 10, including Haren, Molina, Narveson and Johnson.
2004: 7 of the top 10, including Wainwright, Daric Barton, Molina, Hector Luna.

Manno has a point. Sure the Cardinals have come a long way since Reid Gorecki was the team’s organization player of the year. Their depth is better. But that above list shows how they got good (even elite) value for a 30th-ranked system.

So what can be expected from a top-10 system?

Cardinals vice president/farm director Jeff Luhnow surveys minor leaguers in Jupiter, Fla. (Source: StlToday.com)

Much of the credit for the rise in these rankings will be given to Luhnow, the Cardinals’ vice president whose first turn at the controls of a draft was in 2005 and has seen his influence in drafting and development grow each year since. There is little doubt that the Cardinals have more talent in the pipeline now than they have in many years, arguably a decade. And the first trickle of international talent is just starting to reach the upper half of these rankings.

It has been a tremendous and quick restocking of the talent pool.

Look no further than the parade of prospects who debuted in 2008.

But many in the organization agree that 2009 is a pivotal year for the farm system and for the draft class that started it all, that 2005 class of Rasmus, et. al. The time for cameos from the minors is over. The Cardinals are banking on contributors.

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TOWER GROVE — Five years ago the St. Louis Cardinals and the finest hitter of his generation were steaming toward what could have been a dicey and milestone arbitration hearing when, in the 11th hour, Albert Pujols agreed to the largest contract in franchise history. The deal, still active today, made Pujols the ninth $100-million man in baseball history and, at 24, the youngest ever to reach the salary threshold.

As the MVP enters the penultimate year of his guaranteed contract, one thing is clear.

He’s been a bargain.

What is Albert Pujols worth?

News of the New York Yankees inking first baseman Mark Teixeira to an eight-year, $180-million deal rippled through baseball yesterday, and there were probably two interested parties who had little direct interest in where Teixeira signed. The Cardinals and Pujols’ reps cared about what Teixeira signed for. The switch-hitting, Gold Glove-caliber Teixeira finalized a deal with the spree-spending Yankees that averages $22.5 million a year, according to reports. More than Jason Giambi’s contract a few years ago with these same Yankees, Teixeira is a clear and tangible benchmark to help set the market for … well, what Pujols could command as a free agent. Does Teixeira’s new deal hint at Pujols’ next deal?

Both will be 29 during this coming season. Both hit in the middle of the order. Both play first.

Beyond that …

Pujols won his second National League MVP this winter. Teixeira has finished only as high as seventh in the voting, and that was back in 2005. Teixeira, while a switch hitter, is a .290 career hitter with a .541 career slugging percentage. Pujols is a career .334 hitter with a .624 slugging percentage. Some statistical shakedowns:

CAREER … BA/OBP/SLG … 162-gm AVG (ba/obp/slg, hr, rbi)

Teixeira … .290/.378/.541 … .290/.378/.541, 36, 121

Pujols … .334/.425/.624 … .334/.425/.624, 42, 128

3-YEAR … BA/OBP/SLG … HR … RBI

Teixeira … .298/.393/,541 … 96 … 336

Pujols … .338/.440/.629 … 118 … 356

One number that deserves its popularity because of its authority and its ability to compare players against each other and the era in which they play is OPS+. It basically is on-base-percentage plus slugging percentage compared against the league average. It’s a number set at 100 — so <100 is below average and >100 is above average. Teixeira’s career OPS is a sturdy 134. Pujols’ is 170.

Using additional advanced-placement metrics that we have at our fingertips these days, Pujols pulls even further ahead. Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) is simply the number of runs one player contributes to the team over what a replacement at the same position would do with the same number of plate appearances. This past season Pujols led the majors with a 98.6 VORP, according to Baseball Prospectus. It is the second time in three seasons that Pujols has been No. 1.

Teixeira hasn’t cracked the top 50 in that same span.

VORP (according to Baseball Prospectus)

2008 — Teixeira: 35.2 (53rd), right around Troy Glaus, Evan Longoria and two other high-priced ballplayers, Derek Jeter and Magglio Ordonez. … Pujols: 98.6 (1st).

2007 — Teixeira: 27.1 (91st). … Pujols: 72.1 (9th).

2006 — Teixeira: 37.4 (54th), sandwiched between Edgar Renteria and Scott Rolen, and we all know what was going on then with him. … Pujols: 85.4 (1st).

Pujols, it should be noted, does not switch-hit like Teixeira. Of course, he doesn’t need to.

Gold-standard: Pujols in the field

But what about defense? The measures of defense are constantly evolving and improving. One of the best out there right now is the plus/minus used by The Fielding Bible. This is the same publication that has awarded Pujols its equivalent of the Gold Glove every year that is has given out the award. Pujols won this year despite not leading his position in plus/minus for the first time in three seasons. Who did? Teixeira. It only takes a few games of watching Teixeira to know that he’s an above-average defensive player. Athletic. Agile. Etc. The numbers don’t necessarily support the eyes, but it’s safe to say Pujols and Teixeira are, ahem, in the same ballpark when it comes to playing first base.

Their plus/minus scores for the past three seasons (rank at the position in parentheses).

PLAYER, POS … 2006 … 2007 … 2008

TEIXEIRA, 1B … +2 (15) … -4 (22) … +24 (1)

PUJOLS, 1B … +25 (1) … +37 (1) … +20 (2)

All of that is prelude to the original question: What does Teixeira’s new deal tell us about Pujols’ next deal?

It’s a mind-boggling to consider. Is Pujols twice the player, twice the salary? Is Pujols 1 1/2-times the player? Pujols is signed on a guaranteed deal through 2010, and there is a $16-million option for the 2011 season. According to the USA Today salary database (see blogroll), Pujols’ salary didn’t crack the top 25 this past season, but at $16 million for 2009 he’ll likely be in the top 10. Teixeira, at about $20 million in 2009, could be in the top five.

The Cardinals, led then by Walt Jocketty, scored a coup by buying Pujols out of his arbitration years entirely, and they do have rights to him until just a few months before he turns 32. That could reduce the years Pujols will command — especially compared to 29-year-old Teixeira — but not the salary.

I’ve found a few places that have attempted to answer the question what Pujols would make as a free agent in today’s markets. Some present it merely as an academic discussion and don’t arrive at any answer. Others break into mathematical gymnastics far beyond this blog’s ability to translate. At The Baseball Economists’ blog, J.C. Bradbury frames his MVP argument in 2007 around revenue generated by a players’ performance. Pujols ranks well. At Fangraphs there was an announcement today that they are translating some of their sharpest stats into dollar figures and will have leaderboards up shortly. Over at The Book, a blog spawned from a book about The Book, the author wrestled with the Pujols Question, and came to some outrageous conclusions: $300 million. As his guide he used a fascinating scale based on Wins Above Replacement (WAR), similar to the above Value.

The author’s chart is available here, and it illustrates how a player with a 7.0 wins above a replacement player is deserving of a 10-year, $305.9 million contract. (Yowza.)

Using those aforementioned Fangraph numbers, Pujols’ WAR in 2008 was … 9.0.

Cardinals first baseman Albert Pujols after a home run.

Clearly, there is no way to calculate Pujols’ worth using other players’ salaries. He defies the market. Teixeira’s new contract only underscores what was already apparent: Pujols is due a raise. A hefty one. If five years ago, he was the youngest $100-million man, then two years from now is he the first $30-million year man? The way his contract with the Cardinals is structured they will be paying him deferred salary long after he retires, until 2029. Might as well minimize the paperwork and keep the paychecks coming from the same source.

To determine the value of that paycheck, however, you can’t rely on comparables. Or, maybe not current comparables. Baseball-Reference.com has a unique feature that compares a player at his current age against all players at the same age. For a majority of his career, Pujols has compared favorably to Joe DiMaggio. There was a break this season. Here are Teixeira’s and Pujols’ comparables, via Baseball-Reference.com’s formula:

TEIXEIRA

Carlos Delgado
Kent Hrbek
Fred McGriff

PUJOLS

Jimmie Foxx
Hank Aaron
Frank Robinson

Maybe that’s the key to understanding how the Cardinals can approach Pujols’ new contract. It’s Teixeira or even Alex Rodriguez that they should consider. Neither compares. The question is: What would Hank Aaron make today?

***

How’s this entry for a stocking stuffer? Happy holidays. May all your wax packs have a rookie card.

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TOWER GROVE — A year or so ago while organizing the rankings for Baseball America’s Cardinals Top 30, I came upon a pitcher who had been ranked for three consecutive years, had been considered a prospect at every level, and yet as he advanced was steadily sliding in the poll. There were some sources I spoke to who suggested that he shouldn’t be ranked a fourth time.

He had his term, went the argument, and it was time for an infusion of fresh prospects.

There was one thing that told me to ignore those arguments: The pitcher was the brink of making his major-league debut.

It seemed odd to me that a player who go every year since his draft as a Top-30 prospect and on the eve of his arrival in the majors suddenly … not be a prospect? In talking this through with editors and other writers it became apparent that this was not unusual. Players linger and linger and linger in the Top 30 as they climb steadily through the ranks and then, as they finish with a fine Triple-A season and arrive at big-league spring training, are discarded from the rankings in favor of the fresher, younger prospects with less of a track record and more “upside”.

We coined a phrase for this: Prospect Fatigue.

The St. Louis Cardinals Community Top 30 poll reaches No. 23 today, Christmas Eve, and Prospect Fatigue could be in full effect. I’m certainly guilty. Lefthanded starter Nick Additon, a finesse pitcher with great numbers this past season, edged outfielder Shane Robinson with 29 percent of the about 200 or so voters. If that total of voters doesn’t tell you, the third consecutive second-place finish for Robinson should. Prospect Fatigue is setting in.

Cardinals OF Nick Stavinoha emerges as a Comm Top 30 candidate — and an example.

The same names keep bubbling up on the poll, and there is a gravitational pull to somebody new, somebody fresh, somebody who hasn’t been on the poll before.

That is even true when it comes to filling the poll.

Joining the group today is outfielder Nick Stavinoha, pride of LSU. He’s consistently been a prospect in most polls — last year’s Comm Top 30, the Scout.com poll, and at BA — and yet here we are, a few months removed from his major-league debut and he hasn’t yet appeared in the poll. All Stavinoha has done is hit .304/.346/.465 in his minor-league career and he’s coming off a Triple-A season when he hit .337/.366/.518. Robinson, who in many ways had a breakout season in 2008, falls into the same trap. He’s been on the poll as long — longer? — than any of the other candidates and yet he’s now getting leapfrogged by newer, fresher names.

Mike Parisi ran into this same phenomenon as the pitcher mentioned above. The righthander had a steady and reliable climb through the minor leagues. He had the pedigree of a prospect — starting pitcher, a quality pitch (that curve ball) and he was drafted in the ninth round of the 2004 draft. He debuted in the Top 30 at No. 17 in the 2005 Handbook, dropped to No. 26 in 2006 and fell out of the Top 30 in the 2007 Handbook. But here he was on his way to major-league spring training for 2008, a name that some major-league coaches had mentioned as a guy they wanted to see, they wanted to … consider. And he wasn’t going to be ranked? There wasn’t any legit reason not to rank him except for he had been and hadn’t yet made the majors.

But we fought through Prospect Fatigue, saw the player without our baggage, and put him where he belonged — ranked No. 23 in last year’s Baseball America Top 30. Keep that in mind as we vote on this year’s Comm Top 30 No. 23.

Note: There is a poll embedded within this post, please visit the site to participate in this post’s poll.

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